Poker Odds - Calculating Hand Odds In Texas Hold'em Poker & Charts Learning how to properly count your outs and calculate poker odds is a fundamental requirement of Texas Hold'em. While the math used to calculate odds might sound scary and over the head of a new player, it really isn't as hard as it looks. Every time you get dealt a hand in Texas Holdem your odds of getting pocket aces are 1/221, which is roughly 0.9%. First, let’s check how often do pocket aces win preflop. For better representation, I will take a sample of 100 examples. So next 100 times you receive an AA, 15 times you will lose and win 85 times.

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As a poker beginner, you might be already envisioning the money made when you look down at your cards and see pocket aces. While it is true that AA will win more often than not, you still need to understand you will not win every time. So how often can you expect to win with aces?

Pocket aces win 85% of the time against one opponent holding the random hand in Texas Holdem. Although the percentage varies greatly depending on the opponent’s hand and the number of opponents. 85% is the odds to win when AA goes all-in preflop. Odds change on later streets.

It might feel unfair when we loose holding the best hand but keep in mind if we are not 100% to win, we will lose sometimes.

Chances of winning with pocket aces preflop

Every time you get dealt a hand in Texas Holdem your odds of getting pocket aces are 1/221, which is roughly 0.9%.

First, let’s check how often do pocket aces win preflop. For better representation, I will take a sample of 100 examples. So next 100 times you receive an AA, 15 times you will lose and win 85 times.

We should not forget about variance. If we experience negative variance (if we are unlucky), then we may lose 30 times and win 70 times only. On the other hand, if we get a positive side of variance (if we are lucky), we could win 95 out of 100 times!

Pocket aces odds for winning when all-in preflop change depending on which hand we are up against. See how well does AA against specific hands in terms of poker percentages (chance to win). For new players to poker, let me elaborate on the table below.

• 72o means any combination of 7 and 2, o after means the hand is off-suit (meaning that suits on 7 and 2 don’t match)
• 22+ means any pocket pair of 2 and higher (which is all pocket pairs from 22 to and including AA)
• T+ means any card T and higher (T, J, Q, K, A)
• JTs stands for JT suites, which means that suits of J and T match
• broadway hands are the hands that include any combination of hands where the lowest card is T or higher (TQ, TJ, AA, KK, TT, AT)

The best hand against aces preflop is 76s or 87s. They both win 22.5% of the time, so still a big underdog, but it is the best you can hope for.

How odds change against more players

The odds of winning reduce if more players are involved in the hand. Against two opponents holding random hands, AA wins 73.5% of the time. Against three, the odds of winning are now merely 64%.

The tool I am using to show you the % is called Equilab. And you can download it for free from Pokerstrategy’s website. Click on Poker Tools in the menu, the software and scroll down to the end where it says Free training software. Make sure you download the one for Hold’em (it’s written only Equilab).

Chances of winning with AA on later streets

In poker, there is more than just preflop. We know four streets. Those are preflop, flop, turn, and river. It’s easy to calculate your odds to win preflop. When it comes to postflop, things start to get more complex. There are many possible flops. In fact 22100 possible flops. Now some of those could be grouped, but that would still leave us with 1755 different scenarios of flops. On turn and river, that number only increases.

So I can’t show you the pocket aces win percentage against those. But I encourage you to download yourself Equilab I linked to above and play around with different flops, turns, and rivers. As a general rule of thumb, more players, the more cautious you need to be. It will be more likely at least one player has something good.

Chances of winning pre-flop with other hands

Pocket aces are the strongest hand in poker. But we shouldn’t ignore others. The second strongest hand in Hold’em are pocket kings followed by pocket queens.

Chances to win with pocket kings

From the table, we can notice that equity (% to win) with KK against random hand preflop is a bit different for some cards and pretty much the same for others. The biggest difference comes from broadway hands and 22+. The difference is because 22+ and broadways also include AA and that crushes us (AA is 82% to win against KK).

KK has 78.5% chance to win preflop against a random hand. So if our opponent holds a random hand they will still win roughly 1 out of five times. 21.5% of the time to be exact.

Important note. In scenarios above for AA and KK, where I compared them to random holding, I assumed the opponent has a random hand he is willing to go all-in with preflop. In real poker games, opponents will not be going all-in with random hands.

Lets now check the case for QQ

Same as for KK our equity with QQ now falls lower, when we are up against broadway hands and pocket pairs.

Lastly let’s check how we do against those hands with AK as many players like to overplay AK.

Many beginner players are shocked when they see how poorly AK does. That’swhere seasoned poker players will make a lot of money from beginners. Any experienced player knows newbie often overplays hands that look nice but don’t do that good against stronger holdings. With QQ our equity was a lot higher for all of the scenarios. Even against the worst combination of 72o, AK is supposed to win only 2 out of 3 times. This means you will lose 32 times and win 62 times. And that is if you run just average. And this if there would be no variance involved.

I will go deeper into the strategy in another article as it is a massive topic on its own. For now, know when the opponent goes all-in preflop, he will have a decent hand unless they are aggressive players willing to bluff their stack. While some players play tighter (they don’t play many hands) than others a good rule of thumb is pocket kings and aces are always strong enough to get all the money in the middle preflop. With QQ we should be good against the majority, but the tightest people. When it comes to AK, it depends on the opponent we are up against. Often it comes down to personal playing style. I prefer to play my AK a bit more passively, and I will not be blindly throwing my stack in the middle to gamble for what is around 50% to win against what opponent wants to go with all-in.

Conclusion

While pocket aces are a definite favorite against any other hand preflop, it doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to win. Odds change significantly if more players are involved, but at the end of the day, if we get all the money in preflop, we should be happy. In the worst-case scenario, we will have 77.5% to win. When we have either KK or QQ we should still do good. But with AK we need to start being cautiouspreflop.

Related Links

• Ace King vs Pocket Jacks: Winrate and Examples
  
• Odds of Winning With Pocket Kings: Including the Winrate
  

Watch SplitSuit's AA video for a definitive guide on playing pocket aces in Texas Hold'em.

Looking down and seeing ‘the bullets' is one of the highlights of Texas Hold'em. Pocket aces is the #1 starting hand in Hold'em; however, this is where people make the first mistake.

Pocket aces are by no means invincible, and if they are not played with caution you stand to lose a big pot. So allow this quick guide to help you learn how to play pocket aces profitably the next time you pick those bad boys up.

Always look to make a bet or raise with pocket aces.

We have to realize that pocket aces are not the type of hand we want to play against multiple opponents. The ideal situation is to be heads up on the flop. Therefore ‘limping in' in early position is a dangerous tactic and you should avoid doing so. After all, if you do limp then you could be facing numerous opponents on the flop, at which point you have to be prepared to fold your hand to any significant amount of action unless you hit your set.

Always look to raise with pocket aces as opposed to limping in and trying to be tricky. The last thing you want to happen is to be facing multiple opponents on the flop.

A second situation that could arise from limping in is being raised by another player. When facing this raise most people will re-raise once more and this will set alarm bells ringing in the heads of your opponents, because what kind of hand are you holding if you limp then re-raise the raiser?

9 times out of 10 the person making this move has a monster starting hand. Therefore you should more often than not raise when holding pocket aces, it lets your opponents know that you have a big hand but not how big, and it helps to define your opponents hands if they call.

Post-flop pocket aces strategy.

On the flop you again will want to be betting and raising, after all this is the only way you are going to be able to get more money into the pot. If you are heads up against one opponent you may want to check and induce a bluff if he is an aggressive type of player when in first position.

In general, you want to continue betting and raising to build the pot as much as possible with pocket aces. It is not advisable to continuously slowplay this sort of hand. You make more money by betting.

Be sure never to slowplay if the board is coordinated and your opponent is drawing to a straight or a flush; you want to make him pay and give him the wrong pot odds to draw to it.

(Note: When playing online make sure you leave a little time between betting into the pot on the flop. When people raise pre-flop and then bet a large amount into the pot immediately when it is their turn to act it is a big giveaway that they are holding the over-pair, so take a little time!).

Tips for playing pocket aces.

• Do not slowplay.
• Try not to get too attached to the hand.
• The less opponents in the hand the better.
• Remember that pocket Aces are not indestructible.

It must be stressed that aces are definitely not a hand to be slowplayed. Many amateurs fall into this bad habit because they are the #1 starting hand. But this is only before the flop. After the flop it is a different matter, if you don't hit a set just remember... all you have is one pair.

Pocket Odds Poker

You should always be thinking, 'Okay, what could my opponent have that would beat me?' and try to figure out whether he has that type of hand. If you try and slowplay your hand to the end, do you think your opponent is going to call a large bet or an all-in with ace high or a pair? Because those are the only hands you will be beating at the end. If your opponent does call, its goodbye to your stack as very few are going to call with anything less that two-pair.

Pocket aces strategy evaluation.

Aces are not a hand to be slow played. The ideal situation is to be all in on the flop against your opponents. However this is not going to be likely, especially in a cash game. The second best situation is to use the tactics mentioned above by minimizing the number of opponents and getting money into the pot by betting and even raising.

But remember, with pocket Aces you only have one pair, so be prepared to let them go when facing a lot of action. The ability to lay down strong hands what makes the difference between good and great players.

Go back to the awesome Texas Hold'em Strategy.

Odds Pocket Aces Winning

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